In-depth: Global market wrap-up

In-depth: Global market wrap-up


time now for an in-depth look at the
market news as we start the week and for that I’m joined on the line by dr. yang
Jun su professor of economics at the Catholic University of Korea dr. yang
thank you for coming on today you’re welcome well last week with the us-china
trade war going on and a slowdown in the semiconductor business and so on that we
saw Korea’s exports declined for an eleventh month in a row what’s your
outlook in the near term okay well Korean exports was forty six point eight
billion dollars which was fourteen point seven percent below October last year
and imports were 41 point four billion dollars which was fourteen point six
percent below last year so Korea did not have a very good October on the other
hand if you look at it month to month then exports increased four point six
percent from September imports increased six point eight percent from September
so that’s a good news among the bad news and last October’s exports were actually
quite above what we were expecting last year so in a sense partially we did not
do well this year but also partially because we did so much better last year
the numbers look extraordinary bad compared to last year but still the
export performance has been disappointing throughout the year and
import imports and exports both fell together so that means that the economic
slowdown is continuing as you previously mentioned in the previous story
government believes that the goal hit the bottom in October and things will
start to improve and the exports will start increasing in January of next year
I have some caveats on that personally because I think it depends on whether
President Trump and China gets some kind of agreement worked out even if it turns
out to be a small deal but if the trade work continues and if it expands to
areas like automobiles then I think even in January we’ll see a very bad
export performance in Korea right well speaking of trade and other issues
president moon is in Thailand as are many other world leaders and top
officials South Korea gets ready to host the ASEAN summit later this month
what will president moon get out of this trip to Thailand and how can this boost
cooperation with the ASEAN member countries okay well I see on and the
plus three countries that’s Korea China and Japan it’s about a third of the
global economy and Korea has been interested in ASEAN countries because
well we believe that Korean exports are too focused on United States and China
so we’ve been seeking to diversify and the ASEAN region is actually a perfect
region to for us for Korea to diversify its export Vietnam one of the countries
in ASEAN has emerged as the third largest export destination for Korean
goods it took nine percent of total Korean
exports this year from January to September and it’s also the fourth
largest import partner we Korea about four percent of Korea’s total imports
this year came from Vietnam and Korea’s also just signed a cheap agreement with
Indonesia Korea does have a FTA with ASEAN as a whole but it’s a very light
level FTA so it doesn’t seek deep our market liberalisation and as a result a
lot of ASEAN countries want to assign individual FTAs with Korea so that they
can achieve deeper liberalisation as I mentioned Indonesia just signed an FTA
and then the Philippines and Malaysia they’re negotiating with Korea to form a
deeper level of Thierry’s themselves so I say on is a potential market for Korea
to get into Indonesia for example is the fourth highest population country in the
world and still very much a developing stage at very young population so if we
make anyway to Indonesia that’ll prove to be
a very good market for Korea in the long run got it
so a lot of potential there indeed and meanwhile this week we’re expecting some
key economic indicators to come out how do you see Korean and global stocks
moving this week okay well we have a lot of interesting variables coming out this
week we have business confident business confidence index coming from the United
States trade account figures coming from US and China we have a European Central
Bank economic report US consumer credit report and EU finance ministers meeting
as well as in Korea we’re going to have hope with statement analysis as well as
government finance report but in the end I think all of these statistics are
going to show that we’re not in a good place the global economy is heading for
the slowdown and Korean economy especially is going to be in a slowdown
so I think for the most part and useless not going to be good and as a result
stock market is not going to be very happy but I think there’s one
possibility that could pick up which is the us-china trade negotiations we’ve
been hearing a lot of things about how they could a small deal is being worked
out if that is successfully worked out I think that will act as a plus for the
stock market and then another wild-card variable that we need to watch out for
is there is going to be a lot of speeches by the regional governors of
the United States bed and well just with David giving strong signals that they
will not change the interest rate they will not lower it or increase it in the
near future we’ll have to see whether they stick to
that position or whether there’s sort of a crack where some governors want to
lower the rates and some governors want to raise the rates or whether they
formed a sort of a consolidated opinion so that the interesting will be held
steady for a long time all right so maybe some choppy waters ahead dr. Jung
thanks so much for your insights today we appreciate it thank you

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